用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

刘秀英  刘文平  李阳 《山西气象》2002,(4):21-23

收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。  相似文献   

Wind and Wave Data Analysis for the Aegean Sea - Preliminary Results     

Takvor H. Soukissian  Aristides M. Prospathopoulos  Chrysoula Diamanti 《Journal of Atmospheric & Ocean Science》2002,8(2):163-189

In this paper, a statistical analysis on wind and wave buoy measurements and wind and wave model forecasts obtained during a two-year period (1999-2001) is presented with reference to four characteristic near-shore sites of the Aegean Sea. The measurements are a main product of the "POSEIDON" system aiming at the monitoring and forecasting of the state of the Greek seas, operated by the National Centre for Marine Research (NCMR). Although the two-year period is rather short for a thorough analysis of the local wind and wave climate, yet the obtained results, presented herein for the first time, reveal some interesting features of the corresponding wave and wind characteristics. Comparisons between the measurements and the forecast results are also performed at the locations under consideration. It is found that (i) wind speeds obtained from the POSEIDON weather forecasting system are, in general, in agreement with the measurements, except for high wind speeds which are systematically underestimated, (ii) the WAM model can successfully follow the monthly and over year trend of the evolution of wind and wave characteristics, but face significant problems for efficient sea-state forecasting. Finally, the overall pattern of the wind/wave climate for the entire Aegean Sea as obtained from the models is presented by means of the spatial distribution of the mean annual wind and sea-state intensity.  相似文献   

影响我国北方的台风相似预报系统     

孙兴池  吴炜  赵宇 《山东气象》2002,22(1):8-9

普查建国以来影响我国北方的所有台风个例 ,建立了影响我国北方的台风详细历史资料库 ,对台风位置、形成季节、移向、天气形势等进行相似分析 ,并在MICAPS平台上 ,建立了短期和中期台风相似预报系统。  相似文献   

西藏甲马铜多金属矿床远景预测   总被引：4，自引：5，他引：4  

任云生  张金树等 《地质与勘探》2002,38(5):30-32,43

近年研究表明，作为西藏境内少数几个大型矿床之一的甲马铜多金属矿床先后经历了燕山晚期海底喷流积积成矿作用和喜马拉雅期斑岩型成矿作用，相应形成矿区层状主矿休和斑岩型矿体。矿区地质特征、主成矿元素空间分布规律分析后认为：矿区东、西段各存在一个喷流中心，与之相关的层状矿体及深部脉状、网脉状矿体是今后找矿的重点靶区；喜马拉雅期斑岩成矿作用在区域及矿区内均有显示，具有不可忽视的成矿潜力。  相似文献   

Optimal design of passive energy dissipation systems based on H∞ and H2 performances     

J. N. Yang  S. Lin  J‐H. Kim  A. K. Agrawal 《地震工程与结构动力学》2002,31(4):921-936

Passive energy dissipation devices (EDDs), such as viscous dampers, viscoelastic dampers, etc., have been used to effectively reduce the dynamic response of civil infrastructures, such as buildings and bridges, subject to earthquakes and strong winds. The design of these passive energy dissipation devices (EDDs) involves the determination of the optimal locations and the corresponding capacities. In this paper, we present two optimal design methodologies for passive EDDs based on active control theories, including H_∞ and H₂ performances, respectively. The optimal design methodologies presented are capable of determining the optimal locations and the corresponding capacities of EDDs. Emphasis is placed on the application of linear matrix inequality (LMI) for the effective design of passive EDDs using the popular MATLAB toolboxes. One important advantage of the proposed approaches is that the computation of the structural response is not needed in the design process. The proposed optimal design methodologies have been applied to: (i) a 10‐storey building and a 24‐storey building both subject to earthquake excitations, and (ii) a 76‐storey wind‐excited benchmark building, to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed design methodologies over the conventional equal capacity design. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

云南水汞在姚安6.5级地震前的异常特征分析     

杨杰英 《高原地震》2002,14(4):36-41

对2000年1月15日姚安6．5级地震前后云南水汞异常进行分析研究，结果表明：在9个观测台站中，地震前有1个观测台站的水汞出现中期趋势异常，1个台站的水汞出现远震异常，4个台站的水汞出现短期异常，1个台站的水汞出现临震异常。地震前3个月内，水汞短期异常有活跃，平静的过程，在平静中(仅1个台站出现临震异常)发生姚安6．5级地震。姚安地震发生在距出现远震异常的水汞观测台站70km的地方。出现远震异常的水汞观测台站附近，可能是未来强震的发震地区。  相似文献   

How to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

G.B Crosta  F Agliardi 《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2002,27(36):1557-1565

A reliable forecast of the failure stage of large rockslides is difficult, because of non-linear time dependency of displacements and seasonal effects. Aim of this paper is to suggest a practical method to prepare alert thresholds for large rockslides, assessing critical values of velocity for carrying out civil protection actions using monitoring data. Adopted data concern the 20 Mm³ Ruinon rockslide (Valfurva, Central Alps, Italy), still evolving and suitable to originate a fast moving rock avalanche. Multitemporal analysis of aerial photos, LIDAR-ALTM laser topography, field survey and geomechanical analyses allowed to infer the rockslide kinematics and better understand data provided by a monitoring network including distometers, extensometers, GPS benchmarks and inclinometers. The analysis of displacement and rainfall data over five years (1997–2001) allowed to recognise three different evolutionary patterns of displacements, showing a continuously increasing rate since 1997. Data representing large-scale behaviour of the rock mass were fitted by power-law curves, according to the “accelerating creep” model by Voight, in order to evaluate a suitable failure time. This was hampered by the large seasonal deviations, which can significantly delay the occurrence of failure. Data were fitted using the Voight’s equation, expressed in terms of displacement, through non-linear estimation techniques, in order to find values of the controlling parameters (A, α and t_f) suitable to represent the mechanical behaviour of the rock mass approaching the failure. This allowed to compute velocity–time theoretical curves and to define different velocity threshold values (pre-alert, alert and emergency) to be used for emergency management.  相似文献   

南向行星际磁场事件与磁暴关系的研究   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

刘绍亮  李立文 《地球物理学报》2002,45(3):297-305

利用172-182年IMP-8飞船的太阳风观测资料和相应地磁活动性指数Dst和AE,研究了43个南向行星际磁场事件期间太阳风和磁层的耦合问题. 与这43个事件对应的地磁暴是中等的和强的磁暴(Dst＜-50nT). 结果表明:(1) 在43个事件中有11个(约占25.6髎)紧随激波之后,18个处于激波下游流场中(占42髎),其余14个(占33髎)和激波没有关连. 绝大多数事件都伴有太阳风动压和总磁场强度的增加;(2) 当行星际晨昏向电场强度EI＞-4mV/m时,只引起磁亚暴,对Dst指数没有明显影响. 仅当EI＜-5mV/m时,磁亚暴和磁暴才会同时出现;(3) 太阳风动压的增加会增强能量向环电流的输入,但不是密度和速度单独起作用,而是以PK=ρV2的组合形式影响能量的输入;(4) 虽然行星际磁场(IMF)南向分量BZ对太阳风和磁层的耦合起着关键作用,但IMF的BX和BY分量相对于BZ的大小对太阳风向磁层的能量传输也有一定影响. 当BX、BY相对BZ较大时能量耦合加强.  相似文献   

乌鲁木齐区域数字遥测台网各子台背景噪声分析   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：6  

刘永廷  夏爱国  赵庆 《内陆地震》2002,16(4):366-371

选取乌鲁木齐区域数字遥测台网中 1 1个子台的背景噪声数字记录 ,计算并分析其背景噪声地动速度均方根值 RMS、有效测量动态范围以及噪声功率谱 ,最后确定出各台址背景噪声相对集中的频段  相似文献   

基于引力模型的城市空间互相关和功率谱分析——引力模型的理论证明、函数推广及应用实例   总被引：53，自引：7，他引：53  

陈彦光  刘继生 《地理研究》2002,21(6):742-752

空间相互作用是先于城市体系而存在的重要概念 ,引力模型是描述空间相互作用的基本函数之一 ,但引力模型的理论基础不明确而且实际应用有局限。本文首先从城市地理系统的广义分形假设出发 ,推导出引力模型的幂函数形式 ,使其从一个经验模型上升为理论模型 ;进而引入时变函数和时滞参数将引力模型推广为更为一般和更加实用的形式 ,为发展城市引力过程的空间互相关分析和功率谱分析方法奠定了理论基础。借助 194 9～ 1998年 5 0年的人口演化数据 ,以北京 -天津的空间相互作用为实例 ,对基于城市引力关系的空间作用进行了相关分析和波谱分析 ,从而提供了城市网络空间相互作用广义引力分析的典型范例。  相似文献